The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Tanzania

Abstract

Globally, agriculture is the major contributor to economic growth, livelihoods, and food security, but it is under threat from climate change, which also has an impact on rural economies, livelihoods, and food security. This study determined the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Tanzania taking the case of Monduli District Council. A total of 300 Monduli District residents are actively involved in agricultural operations as small farmers. Simple random sampling administered a questionnaire to a sample size of 156 participants and purposive sampling selected 15 key informants for interviews. Data analysis was done using SPSS software Version 24. The regression analysis found that Increase in wind speed was significantly influenced by Climate change with positive and statistically significant association (β = 1.018, p <0.001), while Temperature variability also affected agricultural productivity (β = 0.589, p = 0.020), Rainfall Patterns showed a favorable impact (β = 0.531, p = 0.037). The results showed that collectively 44.5% of the variance in agricultural productivity, was affected by climatic changes due to temperature variability, erratic rainfall distribution, and rising wind speeds. The findings show that lower agricultural productivity is correlated with temperature fluctuation. Similar susceptibility of farming systems in the area is shown by rainfall patterns leading to poor soil drainage and crop failures. Moreover, the results reveal that faster wind speeds have frustrated soil erosion and physically damaged crops, so leading critical requirement of good management techniques. The regression analysis shows that these climatic elements together account for a significant amount of the variance in agricultural output, therefore it is an important influence in determining farming results. This study adds to the increasing information on the effects of climate change on agriculture by providing understanding to farmers, and scientists. The study recommends the use of adaptive methods such as crop diversification plans, better irrigation techniques, and windbreak creation to increase resilience against climate variability. Moreover, it demands policy interventions giving agricultural adaptation top priority and helping farmers to adopt sustainable methods. Dealing with these issues helps stakeholders to better protect agricultural output against continuous climate change.