Abstract:
Globally, agriculture is the major contributor to economic growth, livelihoods, and
food security, but it is under threat from climate change, which also has an impact on
rural economies, livelihoods, and food security. This study determined the impact of
climate change on agricultural productivity in Tanzania taking the case of Monduli
District Council. A total of 300 Monduli District residents are actively involved in
agricultural operations as small farmers. Simple random sampling administered a
questionnaire to a sample size of 156 participants and purposive sampling selected 15
key informants for interviews. Data analysis was done using SPSS software Version
24. The regression analysis found that Increase in wind speed was significantly
influenced by Climate change with positive and statistically significant association (β
= 1.018, p <0.001), while Temperature variability also affected agricultural
productivity (β = 0.589, p = 0.020), Rainfall Patterns showed a favorable impact (β =
0.531, p = 0.037). The results showed that collectively 44.5% of the variance in
agricultural productivity, was affected by climatic changes due to temperature
variability, erratic rainfall distribution, and rising wind speeds. The findings show that
lower agricultural productivity is correlated with temperature fluctuation. Similar
susceptibility of farming systems in the area is shown by rainfall patterns leading to
poor soil drainage and crop failures. Moreover, the results reveal that faster wind
speeds have frustrated soil erosion and physically damaged crops, so leading critical
requirement of good management techniques. The regression analysis shows that these
climatic elements together account for a significant amount of the variance in
agricultural output, therefore it is an important influence in determining farming
results. This study adds to the increasing information on the effects of climate change
on agriculture by providing understanding to farmers, and scientists. The study
recommends the use of adaptive methods such as crop diversification plans, better
irrigation techniques, and windbreak creation to increase resilience against climate
variability. Moreover, it demands policy interventions giving agricultural adaptation
top priority and helping farmers to adopt sustainable methods. Dealing with these
issues helps stakeholders to better protect agricultural output against continuous
climate change.
